Sun, Oct 27, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Philadelphia Flyers 3, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 25 | 013 | 113 | 331 |
| NYI | 39 | 212 | 012 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Travis Sanheim · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 3:17NYIAnders LeeAssists: Josh Bailey, Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 4:22NYIDerick BrassardAssists: Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.50 xG1–2
- P1 11:46NYIRoss JohnstonAssists: Cole Bardreau · Tip-in, 0.22 xG1–3
- P1 16:38PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Justin Braun, Kevin Hayes · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 4:13NYIRyan PulockGWGAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–4
- P2 5:38NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Anders Lee, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–5
- P3 17:04PHIClaude GirouxAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:22NYIRoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:22PHIChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:57PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:23NYIRoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:23PHIChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:23NYICole Bardreau: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:52NYIRoss Johnston: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:00NYIRyan Pulock: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:57PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Hayes – Farabee6:40
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Couturier – Lindblom – Konecny6:35
xG 0.76–0.75 (50%)attempts 8–4goals 0–2
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Voracek8:05
xG 0.48–0.64 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Hayes – Raffl – Farabee2:18
xG 0.14–0.32 (30%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Braun – Sanheim11:15
xG 0.59–0.72 (45%)attempts 15–9goals 3–3
- Niskanen – Provorov14:11
xG 0.84–1.38 (38%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Nelson – Beauvillier9:39
xG 2.15–0.54 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Dal Colle9:50
xG 0.74–0.13 (85%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Johnston – Bardreau – Wahlstrom5:35
xG 0.42–0.03 (94%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Bailey – Lee – Barzal10:32
xG 0.78–0.59 (57%)attempts 7–16goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy12:03
xG 1.92–0.74 (72%)attempts 16–12goals 3–1
- Pelech – Pulock12:23
xG 1.13–0.27 (81%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Toews13:07
xG 1.42–0.57 (71%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).