Sun, Oct 27, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Boston Bruins 7, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 010 | 421 | 312 | 743 |
| NYR | 17 | 05 | 317 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:19NYRMicheal HaleyAssists: Brendan Smith, Lias Andersson · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 0:11BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 1:08BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Brandon Carlo · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 9:27BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 12:09BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Charlie Coyle, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
- P3 0:43BOSZdeno CharaGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Brandon Carlo · Slap, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 8:15NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.33 xG5–2
- P3 11:39BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–2
- P3 18:01NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.44 xG6–3
- P3 18:22NYRBrady SkjeiAssists: Artemi Panarin, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.13 xG6–4
- P3 19:15BOSPatrice BergeronENAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.66 xG7–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:35NYRBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:55BOSPeter Cehlarik: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:17BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:36NYRKaapo Kakko: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:01BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:01NYRHenrik Lundqvist: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:36BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:18BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:52BOSZdeno Chara: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Ritchie – DeBrusk9:52
xG 0.64–0.35 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Backes – Kuraly – Cehlarik6:28
xG 0.26–0.04 (86%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Heinen – Bjork – Lindholm4:27
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:26
xG 0.67–0.67 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Carlo11:59
xG 0.73–0.42 (64%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Krug – Clifton3:10
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Chara – McAvoy13:29
xG 0.62–0.49 (56%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Buchnevich – Panarin13:57
xG 0.87–0.68 (56%)attempts 10–12goals 2–2
- McKegg – Lemieux – Howden2:31
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Kreider – Howden – Kakko5:34
xG 0.14–0.72 (16%)attempts 3–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Skjei – DeAngelo12:43
xG 0.62–0.58 (52%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Staal – Fox6:06
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Trouba – Hajek7:57
xG 0.23–0.53 (30%)attempts 8–9goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).