Mon, Oct 28, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Florida Panthers 2, Vancouver Canucks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 18 | 18 | 015 | 231 |
| VAN | 515 | 17 | 114 | 736 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14VANBrandon SutterAssists: Micheal Ferland, Josh Leivo · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 4:25VANTim SchallerPPAssists: Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P1 6:18VANJake VirtanenGWGAssists: Bo Horvat, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–3
- P1 8:09FLABrian BoyleAssists: Jayce Hawryluk · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P1 9:35VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P1 19:06VANJosh LeivoAssists: Micheal Ferland, Alexander Edler · Snap, 0.13 xG1–5
- P2 12:58FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Keith Yandle, Evgenii Dadonov · Slap, 0.05 xG2–5
- P2 19:31VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Elias Pettersson · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–6
- P3 13:20VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–7
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:06FLAAleksander Barkov: Holding2 min
- P2 8:53FLADenis Malgin: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:16VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:19VANTyler Myers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Huberdeau won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Connolly – Hawryluk9:43
xG 0.67–0.31 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Hunt – Acciari10:56
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Vatrano – Malgin10:57
xG 0.21–0.50 (30%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov10:53
xG 0.26–1.61 (14%)attempts 8–14goals 0–4
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad14:18
xG 0.82–0.38 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Yandle – Ekblad2:44
xG 0.08–0.06 (58%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Yandle – Brown13:21
xG 0.40–0.80 (33%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Pettersson12:41
xG 0.78–0.23 (77%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Virtanen9:31
xG 1.02–0.59 (63%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Beagle – Schaller11:08
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Sutter – Ferland – Leivo10:50
xG 0.33–1.06 (24%)attempts 7–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Myers15:02
xG 1.70–1.32 (56%)attempts 16–15goals 5–1
- Tanev – Hughes13:51
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Benn – Stecher17:06
xG 0.58–0.41 (59%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).