Tue, Oct 29, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
San Jose Sharks 1, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 06 | 16 | 05 | 117 |
| BOS | 216 | 318 | 07 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:49BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 17:51BOSDavid KrejciPPGWGAssists: Torey Krug, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 1:31SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 5:21BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: David Krejci, Danton Heinen · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 8:31BOSChris WagnerAssists: David Backes · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–4
- P2 16:50BOSBrandon CarloAssists: Chris Wagner, Zdeno Chara · Snap, 0.01 xG1–5
Penalties (26)
- P1 6:15SJSBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:49SJSLukas Radil: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 9:20BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Holding2 min
- P1 16:25SJSTomas Hertl: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:52BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:09SJSTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:36SJSLukas Radil: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:08SJSEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:08SJSBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:08BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:44SJSLukas Radil: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:02BOSJake DeBrusk: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:10SJSErik Karlsson: Game misconduct head coach0 min
- P3 12:39BOSBrett Ritchie: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:39SJSBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:39BOSBrett Ritchie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:39SJSBarclay Goodrow: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:25BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:25SJSLogan Couture: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:25SJSLogan Couture: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:25BOSBrad Marchand: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:42SJSLukas Radil: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:42SJSEvander Kane: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:42BOSDavid Backes: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:43SJSTimo Meier: Interference2 min
- P3 19:43BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Kane – Hertl – Radil6:46
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Sorensen4:22
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Meier3:05
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Couture – Labanc – Meier5:36
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Karlsson – Dillon8:20
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Ferraro2:12
xG 0.02–0.05 (32%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon2:54
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Wagner – Kuraly5:09
xG 0.89–0.11 (89%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Coyle – Ritchie – Bjork7:45
xG 0.43–0.04 (92%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak6:49
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Krejci – Heinen – DeBrusk6:45
xG 0.10–0.23 (31%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy3:14
xG 0.63–0.10 (86%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo2:11
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo8:27
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).