Tue, Oct 29, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 111 | 011 | 08 | 130 |
| NYR | 014 | 114 | 314 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:44TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 9:37NYRKaapo KakkoSHAssists: Ryan Strome, Artemi Panarin · Deflected, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 12:46NYRFilip ChytilGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 17:24NYRAdam FoxAssists: Chris Kreider, Ryan Lindgren · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 19:14NYRRyan StromeENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.54 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:56NYRMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:56TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:13TBLLuke Witkowski: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:20NYRKaapo Kakko: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:32TBLMikhail Sergachev: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:10TBLMathieu Joseph: Interference2 min
- P2 8:50TBLOndrej Palat: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:26NYRBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Verhaeghe – Joseph3:39
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Gourde – Paquette – Joseph4:23
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point9:13
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Johnson9:23
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Witkowski2:12
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Coburn – Shattenkirk2:33
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Coburn – Witkowski4:28
xG 0.20–0.41 (32%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Buchnevich – Chytil9:55
xG 0.96–0.55 (64%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Lemieux – Howden – Kakko6:30
xG 0.12–0.46 (20%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Fast – Strome – Panarin11:25
xG 0.03–0.45 (7%)attempts 2–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren10:45
xG 0.95–0.42 (69%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Skjei – DeAngelo10:40
xG 0.87–0.54 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Trouba – Hajek14:59
xG 0.18–0.61 (23%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).