Tue, Oct 29, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Calgary Flames 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 112 | 013 | 04 | 129 |
| CAR | 011 | 07 | 210 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:04CGYElias LindholmAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Travis Hamonic · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 9:13CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Lucas Wallmark · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 12:35CARAndrei SvechnikovPPGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:41CARWarren Foegele: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:44CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
- P2 9:22CARBrock McGinn: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:08CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:03CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:28CARDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk11:29
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Lucic – Frolik – Backlund10:20
xG 0.37–0.39 (49%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Tkachuk2:40
xG 0.06–0.12 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Rieder – Mangiapane – Ryan6:21
xG 0.27–0.35 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie15:05
xG 0.72–0.54 (57%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Kylington2:43
xG 0.06–0.11 (36%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Andersson – Kylington13:17
xG 0.52–0.67 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Dzingel – Necas9:42
xG 0.69–0.01 (99%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Foegele – Aho – Svechnikov10:38
xG 0.57–0.42 (57%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Gibbons – McGinn – Wallmark7:32
xG 0.38–0.27 (59%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Teravainen10:01
xG 0.20–0.45 (31%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin14:18
xG 1.09–0.77 (59%)attempts 23–9goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Pesce14:27
xG 0.70–0.58 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce2:27
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).