Tue, Oct 29, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 3, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 210 | 16 | 06 | 322 |
| DAL | 09 | 110 | 518 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:50MINJason ZuckerAssists: Eric Staal · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 17:54MINEric StaalPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Brad Hunt · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 14:26MINRyan SuterPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 19:12DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Taylor Fedun, Tyler Seguin · Slap, 0.44 xG3–1
- P3 4:09DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Alexander Radulov, Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.26 xG3–2
- P3 9:36DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 11:31DALAlexander RadulovGWGAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 18:20DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.25 xG3–5
- P3 19:30DALAlexander RadulovENAssists: Joe Pavelski, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.53 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:46MINJordan Greenway: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:47DALCorey Perry: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:15DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:47MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:44DALDenis Gurianov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:37DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:52DALJoe Pavelski: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:52MINMats Zuccarello: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:41MINJonas Brodin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:20MINJason Zucker: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Rask – Donato – Greenway4:52
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Parise – Eriksson Ek – Kunin12:25
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
- Koivu – Foligno – Hartman8:17
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Zuccarello – Zucker10:15
xG 0.45–0.85 (34%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Brodin – Dumba12:35
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Brodin – Soucy2:05
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Hunt – Soucy11:17
xG 0.36–0.47 (43%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin4:44
xG 1.01–0.04 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 2–0
- Pavelski – Radulov – Hintz7:07
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Gurianov4:12
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Perry – Faksa – Janmark4:21
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFedun – Heiskanen3:49
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen7:51
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Fedun – Hanley6:57
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).