Wed, Oct 30, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, New Jersey Devils 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 29 | 17 | 35 | 12 | 723 |
| NJD | 111 | 315 | 216 | 00 | 642 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.53 xG0–1
- P1 9:28TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 17:15TBLAlex KillornSHAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 6:05NJDJesper BrattSHAssists: Pavel Zacha, Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 11:48TBLBrayden PointSHAssists: Tyler Johnson, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 12:17NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Will Butcher, Taylor Hall · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 13:16NJDJesper BrattAssists: Andy Greene, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 1:13NJDSami VatanenAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Andy Greene · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 2:45TBLAnthony CirelliSHAssists: Jan Rutta, Mathieu Joseph · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–5
- P3 7:45TBLMathieu JosephPPAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–5
- P3 16:03TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.03 xG6–5
- P3 19:52NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Will Butcher · Backhand, 0.09 xG6–6
- OT 1:16TBLTyler JohnsonGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.10 xG7–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:33TBLKevin Shattenkirk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 6:16TBLJan Rutta: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:28NJDNico Hischier: Holding2 min
- P1 18:12TBLRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:05TBLMathieu Joseph: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:37TBLMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Joseph – Cirelli7:51
xG 1.02–0.49 (67%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Volkov10:18
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
- Johnson – Palat – Point11:00
xG 0.37–0.87 (30%)attempts 7–12goals 3–0
- Gourde – Paquette – Verhaeghe8:53
xG 0.34–1.15 (23%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Sergachev13:34
xG 1.40–0.37 (79%)attempts 14–8goals 3–1
- McDonagh – Rutta4:43
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – McDonagh3:14
xG 0.06–0.06 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hall – Hughes11:15
xG 1.42–0.32 (81%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Zacha – Bratt – Hischier10:10
xG 1.14–1.02 (53%)attempts 15–6goals 1–3
- Hayden – Wood – Rooney7:47
xG 0.42–0.31 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Zajac – Simmonds – Coleman9:47
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Vatanen14:32
xG 1.74–0.55 (76%)attempts 15–16goals 2–0
- Subban – Vatanen2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Tennyson – Butcher11:30
xG 0.29–0.43 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).