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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 30, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver

Florida Panthers 4, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)

Away

Florida Panthers

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Colorado Avalanche

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.

COL winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
FLA11201121411438
COL270171600330

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:05COLMatt NietoSHAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Matt Calvert · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–1
  2. P1 9:59FLAColton SceviourAssists: Aaron Ekblad, MacKenzie Weegar · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P1 19:28COLJoonas DonskoiAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–2
  4. P3 7:37COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Ian Cole, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
  5. P3 12:04FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Mike Hoffman · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
  6. P3 18:30FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
  7. OT 0:29FLAJonathan HuberdeauGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 0:07COLNathan MacKinnon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P1 3:36FLAMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 11:42COLIan Cole: Interference2 min
  4. P2 0:40FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Holding2 min
  5. P2 17:14COLIan Cole: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 0:00FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 0:00COLNazem Kadri: Fighting5 min
  8. P3 11:53COLNikita Zadorov: Slashing2 min · PPG
  9. P3 11:53COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 11:53FLADryden Hunt: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 11:53FLADryden Hunt: Misconduct10 min
  12. P3 11:53COLNikita Zadorov: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against MacKinnon
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLACOL
38Shots on goal30
2.9Expected goals3.2
60Shot attempts48
30Faceoffs won30
4Power plays2
21Penalty minutes25
15Hits15
7Blocked shots12
4Giveaways10
8Takeaways13

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. Hoffman – Vatrano – Malgin2:01

    xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0

  2. Boyle – Hoffman – Connolly6:24

    xG 0.04–0.11 (27%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

  3. Sceviour – Hunt – Acciari7:50

    xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1

  4. Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov13:43

    xG 0.61–0.94 (39%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestStralman – Stillman9:27

    xG 0.80–0.69 (54%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0

  2. Stralman – Weegar2:48

    xG 0.11–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1

  3. Yandle – Stralman2:25

    xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

Colorado Avalanche

Forward lines

  1. bestCalvert – Nieto – Bellemare11:11

    xG 1.00–0.13 (88%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0

  2. Kadri – Donskoi – MacKinnon11:32

    xG 0.84–0.47 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 2–1

  3. Megna – Nichushkin – Kamenev4:58

    xG 0.06–0.05 (53%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

  4. Burakovsky – Compher – Jost9:48

    xG 0.47–0.83 (36%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestCole – Makar10:49

    xG 0.90–0.22 (80%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1

  2. Girard – Makar6:26

    xG 0.61–0.25 (71%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0

  3. Johnson – Girard13:36

    xG 0.74–0.40 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 3.2 xGFLA 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 93/100 · #78 of 1082 this seasonSwing 2.42 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 4% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.

COL winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).