Thu, Oct 31, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Montréal Canadiens 5, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 110 | 29 | 11 | 530 |
| VGK | 212 | 015 | 28 | 00 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:35MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Shea Weber, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 14:35VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 19:36VGKAlex TuchAssists: Nate Schmidt, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 9:40MTLJonathan DrouinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 4:21VGKCody GlassAssists: Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 7:59VGKMark StoneAssists: Max Pacioretty · Deflected, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 13:33MTLTomas TatarUnassisted · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 18:02MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Joel Armia · Tip-in, 0.18 xG4–4
- OT 0:26MTLMax DomiGWGAssists: Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.23 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 5:24VGKJonathan Marchessault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:11VGKDeryk Engelland: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:20MTLTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:31VGKNate Schmidt: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Lehkonen – Suzuki7:16
xG 0.65–0.09 (87%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Thompson – Weal – Cousins9:06
xG 0.76–0.71 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault11:39
xG 0.36–0.56 (39%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
- Armia – Drouin – Domi11:25
xG 0.62–1.03 (37%)attempts 7–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Fleury13:17
xG 1.15–0.59 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Petry – Chiarot15:28
xG 0.94–0.61 (61%)attempts 20–17goals 0–1
- Weber – Mete17:03
xG 0.75–1.26 (37%)attempts 14–24goals 1–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Pacioretty – Stone13:11
xG 0.87–0.11 (89%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek6:35
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Eakin – Tuch – Glass9:35
xG 0.60–0.63 (49%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:55
xG 0.74–0.88 (46%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Theodore15:26
xG 1.02–0.65 (61%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- McNabb – Schmidt16:16
xG 0.73–1.21 (38%)attempts 21–19goals 2–2
- Engelland – Holden14:40
xG 0.37–1.12 (25%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).