Fri, Nov 1, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 19 | 18 | 04 | 1 | 431 |
| NJD | 16 | 17 | 111 | 02 | 0 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:24NJDWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 10:39PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 7:26PHISean CouturierAssists: Oskar Lindblom · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 14:28NJDSami VatanenPPAssists: Nico Hischier, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 9:58NJDTaylor HallAssists: Andy Greene, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 11:29PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Michael Raffl, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 2. NJD Kyle Palmieri stopped
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. NJD Jack Hughes stopped
- 5. PHI Sean Couturier scored
- 6. NJD Taylor Hall stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:16PHIJustin Braun: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:59NJDKyle Palmieri: Instigator2 min
- P1 11:59NJDKyle Palmieri: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:59PHIMatt Niskanen: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:59NJDKyle Palmieri: Misconduct10 min
- P2 4:51PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Interference2 min
- P2 9:39NJDAndy Greene: Holding2 min
- P2 13:26PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:46NJDMatt Tennyson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:23PHITravis Konecny: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Lindblom – Konecny7:50
xG 0.49–0.32 (60%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Stewart – Twarynski – Rubtsov6:47
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hayes – Raffl – Farabee8:53
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Voracek13:11
xG 0.19–0.47 (29%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sanheim – Myers10:49
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Braun – Sanheim2:48
xG 0.02–0.02 (47%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Provorov15:53
xG 0.33–0.54 (38%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Simmonds – Coleman8:36
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Hall – Hughes7:12
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Zacha – Bratt – Hischier10:14
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Hall – Bratt – Hischier2:39
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Severson15:26
xG 0.86–0.38 (69%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Greene – Vatanen13:08
xG 0.30–0.31 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Tennyson – Butcher12:33
xG 0.05–0.24 (18%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).