Fri, Nov 1, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 05 | 116 | 114 | 235 |
| NYI | 05 | 213 | 38 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:58NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 7:49TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 11:33NYIRyan PulockAssists: Derick Brassard, Anthony Beauvillier · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 12:41NYIJosh BaileyPPGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Anders Lee · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 14:27NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 18:03TBLRyan McDonaghSHAssists: Ondrej Palat, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 19:24NYIDerick BrassardENAssists: Anders Lee, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.66 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:20TBLMikhail Sergachev: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:51TBLLuke Witkowski: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:51NYIRoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:49NYIDevon Toews: Holding2 min
- P2 5:45NYICal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min
- P2 15:33TBLKevin Shattenkirk: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:21NYIScott Mayfield: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:27TBLTyler Johnson: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Point8:14
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli9:13
xG 0.33–0.32 (50%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Volkov9:42
xG 0.24–0.69 (26%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Sergachev11:22
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak10:02
xG 0.18–0.16 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Schenn – Rutta7:14
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Barzal10:39
xG 0.61–0.19 (76%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Johnston – Bardreau – Wahlstrom5:21
xG 0.19–0.19 (51%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Dal Colle11:08
xG 0.15–0.17 (48%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Nelson – Beauvillier8:26
xG 0.16–0.50 (24%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock13:30
xG 0.33–0.21 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Toews12:43
xG 0.51–0.41 (56%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy10:00
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).