Fri, Nov 1, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Detroit Red Wings 3, Carolina Hurricanes 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 110 | 213 | 09 | 332 |
| CAR | 19 | 419 | 26 | 734 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:15CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Dougie Hamilton · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 16:52DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Joe Hicketts · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 0:27CARSebastian AhoAssists: Warren Foegele, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P2 1:48CARNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–3
- P2 8:02DETAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Valtteri Filppula · Slap, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 8:28CARMartin NecasGWGAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 11:03CARSebastian AhoAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Andrei Svechnikov · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–5
- P2 16:12DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Dylan Larkin, Patrik Nemeth · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 1:49CARBrock McGinnSHAssists: Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.18 xG3–6
- P3 16:38CARTeuvo TeravainenENAssists: Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:08CARErik Haula: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:43DETPatrik Nemeth: Interference2 min
- P1 5:43CARNino Niederreiter: Embellishment2 min
- P1 17:15DETFilip Hronek: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:27DETBrendan Perlini: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P2 7:57CARSebastian Aho: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:24DETTyler Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:56CARJordan Staal: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:43CARTrevor van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
- P3 13:38CARDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Erne – de la Rose5:48
xG 0.22–0.03 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Helm – Bertuzzi – Larkin9:31
xG 0.55–0.52 (51%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Filppula – Athanasiou – Mantha8:45
xG 0.71–0.79 (47%)attempts 11–7goals 1–2
- Nielsen – Perlini – Hirose8:05
xG 0.21–0.53 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Bowey13:42
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Daley – Hronek2:05
xG 0.04–0.08 (34%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Hronek10:42
xG 0.51–0.62 (45%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Teravainen8:08
xG 0.75–0.22 (77%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Foegele – Aho – Svechnikov9:14
xG 0.81–0.51 (61%)attempts 8–13goals 2–0
- Gibbons – McGinn – Wallmark7:42
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Haula – Dzingel – Necas10:53
xG 0.75–0.78 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin12:59
xG 1.65–1.03 (62%)attempts 17–14goals 2–2
- Edmundson – van Riemsdyk11:48
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Pesce13:40
xG 0.02–0.56 (3%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).