Fri, Nov 1, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Dallas Stars 2, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 113 | 18 | 08 | 229 |
| COL | 011 | 117 | 011 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:06DALRoope HintzSHAssists: Denis Gurianov, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 5:39DALRoope HintzGWGAssists: Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 9:54COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Cale Makar, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:27DALTyler Seguin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:29COLIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P1 9:02DALJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min
- P2 4:12DALRadek Faksa: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:24DALAndrew Cogliano: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:05COLNazem Kadri: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 15:30DALCorey Perry: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:30COLJ.T. Compher: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:03DALJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Gurianov7:34
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin12:10
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Perry – Janmark – Dickinson6:04
xG 0.06–0.15 (28%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Faksa – Caamano3:51
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell14:58
xG 0.98–0.33 (75%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Heiskanen2:49
xG 0.17–0.04 (83%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Oleksiak2:24
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Compher – Jost6:19
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Megna – Nichushkin – Kamenev2:54
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Compher – Jost2:24
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kadri – Donskoi – MacKinnon3:52
xG 0.12–0.22 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Girard2:40
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Graves – Zadorov4:27
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Cole2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).