Fri, Nov 1, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vancouver Canucks 1, Anaheim Ducks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 019 | 014 | 15 | 02 | 140 |
| ANA | 15 | 013 | 08 | 13 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:28ANAJakob SilfverbergSHAssists: Rickard Rakell, Korbinian Holzer · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P3 13:42VANBrandon SutterAssists: Adam Gaudette, Tanner Pearson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- OT 2:30ANARyan GetzlafGWGAssists: Troy Terry · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:06VANJay Beagle: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:06ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:28ANAMax Jones: Holding2 min
- P1 12:11ANAAdam Henrique: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:36VANChris Tanev: Holding2 min
- P2 11:01ANAMax Jones: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:40VANTanner Pearson: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:27ANADerek Grant: Holding2 min
- P3 5:46VANBrock Boeser: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:03ANAKorbinian Holzer: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:57VANJacob Markstrom: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Beagle – Schaller7:09
xG 0.88–0.03 (97%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson11:22
xG 0.76–0.26 (75%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Virtanen4:23
xG 0.22–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Sutter – Leivo – Gaudette3:56
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev5:12
xG 0.80–0.07 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Edler – Myers10:25
xG 0.87–0.39 (69%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hughes3:01
xG 0.46–0.14 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Silfverberg – Rakell7:01
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Terry – Steel – Jones3:25
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney6:58
xG 0.03–0.27 (10%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Ritchie – Comtois4:54
xG 0.22–0.58 (27%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolzer – Mahura9:16
xG 0.61–0.35 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Fowler12:43
xG 0.20–0.86 (19%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Lindholm14:05
xG 0.16–1.76 (8%)attempts 6–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).