Sat, Nov 2, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New York Rangers 2, Nashville Predators 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 18 | 015 | 230 |
| NSH | 08 | 114 | 011 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:05NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Libor Hajek · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 4:16NYRRyan StromeGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Jesper Fast · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 14:34NSHViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:49NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:25NYRBrady Skjei: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:26NSHMattias Ekholm: Interference2 min
- P2 2:38NYRMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:38NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:27NSHMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:02NYRTony DeAngelo: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00NYRRyan Strome: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:47NSHRyan Ellis: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:43NYRBrendan Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 17:39NYRLibor Hajek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Buchnevich – Chytil7:07
xG 0.64–0.11 (85%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Fast – Strome – Panarin7:52
xG 0.46–0.19 (70%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Lemieux – Howden – Kakko5:50
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – DeAngelo8:30
xG 0.78–0.21 (78%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Trouba – Hajek8:44
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Fox – Lindgren6:34
xG 0.18–0.12 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson6:25
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg6:37
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi5:27
xG 0.14–0.09 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Arvidsson4:10
xG 0.06–0.22 (21%)attempts 3–2goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Fabbro15:57
xG 0.69–0.40 (63%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Irwin7:48
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Josi – Ellis13:37
xG 0.67–1.08 (38%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).