Sat, Nov 2, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 2, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 16 | 115 | 011 | 232 |
| BOS | 111 | 110 | 311 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:17BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 12:04OTTAnthony DuclairAssists: Logan Brown, Mark Borowiecki · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 1:51BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 3:04OTTConnor BrownAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mark Borowiecki · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 5:43BOSDanton HeinenGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
- P3 6:50BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.24 xG2–4
- P3 16:16BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Danton Heinen · Slap, 0.11 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:46OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 7:40BOSCharlie Coyle: Interference2 min
- P2 5:03BOSPeter Cehlarik: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:08BOSBrad Marchand: Spearing double minor4 min
- P2 6:08BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:53OTTMark Borowiecki: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:20OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:11OTTMark Borowiecki: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Brown – Paul7:46
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Duclair – Brown – Tkachuk2:32
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Tierney – Duclair – Tkachuk2:28
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Duclair – Beaudin – Tkachuk2:16
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – DeMelo12:28
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Brannstrom8:42
xG 0.13–0.42 (24%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev15:37
xG 0.30–0.78 (28%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Heinen – DeBrusk7:10
xG 0.37–0.15 (72%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Coyle – Cehlarik – Bjork3:50
xG 0.08–0.12 (39%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:04
xG 0.35–0.44 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Wagner – Kuraly – Bjork3:34
xG 0.04–0.24 (15%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Grzelcyk10:56
xG 0.81–0.15 (85%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Chara – McAvoy13:33
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Krug – Carlo13:22
xG 0.21–0.72 (23%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).