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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 2, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.

PHI winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
TOR1121715022426
PHI15116111081340

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:55TORKasperi KapanenAssists: Morgan Rielly, Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.24 xG1–0
  2. P1 15:02PHIIvan ProvorovPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P2 3:12PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Ivan Provorov, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.28 xG1–2
  4. P2 17:55TORJason SpezzaAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
  5. P3 0:31PHITravis SanheimAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Sean Couturier · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
  6. P3 5:03TORMitch MarnerUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
  2. 2. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
  3. 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
  4. 4. TOR Mitch Marner stopped
  5. 5. PHI Oskar Lindblom stopped
  6. 6. TOR Kasperi Kapanen stopped
  7. 7. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
  8. 8. TOR William Nylander stopped
  9. 9. PHI Joel Farabee stopped
  10. 10. TOR Dmytro Timashov stopped
  11. 11. PHI Kevin Hayes stopped
  12. 12. TOR Ilya Mikheyev stopped
  13. 13. PHI Shayne Gostisbehere stopped
  14. 14. TOR Tyson Barrie stopped
  15. 15. PHI Travis Konecny scored
  16. 16. TOR Jason Spezza scored
  17. 17. PHI Michael Raffl stopped
  18. 18. TOR Alexander Kerfoot stopped
  19. 19. PHI James van Riemsdyk stopped
  20. 20. TOR Morgan Rielly stopped
  21. 21. PHI Ivan Provorov stopped
  22. 22. TOR Andreas Johnsson scored
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 14:47TORJason Spezza: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  2. P2 2:34TORJason Spezza: Holding2 min · PPG
  3. P2 6:10TORJason Spezza: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 9:48TORMorgan Rielly: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 18:10PHIMatt Niskanen: Interference2 min
  6. P3 3:54TORCody Ceci: Interference2 min
  7. P3 4:09PHIJoel Farabee: High sticking2 min
  8. OT 0:42TORKasperi Kapanen: Tripping2 min
  9. OT 4:59PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
  10. OT 4:59TORFrederik Gauthier: Too many men on the ice2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
45% to win55% to win
← TOR attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Couturier
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORPHI
26Shots on goal40
1.9Expected goals4.1
48Shot attempts70
20Faceoffs won31
2Power plays6
14Penalty minutes6
28Hits23
11Blocked shots15
16Giveaways6
4Takeaways4

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Forward lines

  1. bestSpezza – Kapanen – Mikheyev3:35

    xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0

  2. Spezza – Kapanen – Moore3:55

    xG 0.22–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0

  3. Kerfoot – Marner – Mikheyev6:06

    xG 0.09–0.07 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0

  4. Shore – Gauthier – Timashov4:22

    xG 0.06–0.28 (17%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestHoll – Dermott8:01

    xG 0.63–0.02 (97%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0

  2. Barrie – Holl3:50

    xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

  3. Barrie – Ceci3:06

    xG 0.03–0.36 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

Philadelphia Flyers

Forward lines

  1. bestCouturier – Lindblom – Konecny14:59

    xG 1.04–0.45 (70%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0

  2. Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Farabee10:37

    xG 0.36–0.26 (57%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0

  3. Voracek – Hayes – Raffl9:07

    xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1

  4. Pitlick – Twarynski – Rubtsov6:23

    xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestNiskanen – Provorov15:40

    xG 0.78–0.25 (76%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0

  2. Sanheim – Myers13:58

    xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0

  3. Braun – Gostisbehere11:31

    xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 4.1 xGTOR 1.9 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHITOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 75/100 · #267 of 1082 this seasonSwing 2.04 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 21% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.

PHI winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).