Sat, Nov 2, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 5, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 29 | 110 | 27 | 526 |
| CAR | 214 | 19 | 04 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:55CARWarren FoegeleAssists: Sebastian Aho, Jake Gardiner · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 11:28NJDMiles WoodAssists: Will Butcher, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 16:36CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–2
- P1 19:33NJDJack HughesPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–2
- P2 0:34NJDNico HischierAssists: Andy Greene · Snap, 0.32 xG3–2
- P2 10:59CARErik HaulaAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 4:00NJDP.K. SubbanGWGAssists: Miles Wood · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 19:11NJDDamon SeversonENAssists: Kevin Rooney · Wrist, 0.46 xG5–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 13:16CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:50NJDMatt Tennyson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 16:36NJDBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:28CARDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:23NJDTravis Zajac: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00NJDKevin Rooney: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:04CARDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:17NJDKyle Palmieri: Interference2 min
- P3 8:04CARRyan Dzingel: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:04NJDPavel Zacha: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:03CARWarren Foegele: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Wood – Rooney7:36
xG 0.78–0.19 (81%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Zacha – Bratt – Hischier4:27
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 1–2
- Palmieri – Hall – Hughes7:55
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Hall – Hischier2:02
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTennyson – Butcher12:15
xG 1.02–0.66 (61%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Subban – Severson14:20
xG 0.68–0.44 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Greene – Vatanen12:41
xG 0.50–0.61 (45%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Teravainen10:42
xG 0.86–0.42 (67%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Haula – Dzingel – Necas9:36
xG 0.16–0.30 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Gibbons – McGinn – Wallmark5:08
xG 0.19–0.37 (33%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Foegele – Aho – Svechnikov8:01
xG 0.27–0.68 (28%)attempts 6–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce2:13
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Pesce12:13
xG 0.34–0.38 (47%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Edmundson – van Riemsdyk9:15
xG 0.42–0.74 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).