Sat, Nov 2, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Montréal Canadiens 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 013 | 09 | 114 | 136 |
| DAL | 114 | 114 | 212 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:24DALAlexander RadulovPPAssists: Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 18:49DALDenis GurianovGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.26 xG0–2
- P3 10:43DALDenis GurianovPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 15:08DALMiro HeiskanenENAssists: Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.45 xG0–4
- P3 16:18MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nick Suzuki, Paul Byron · Slap, 0.04 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:28DALAlexander Radulov: Cross checking2 min
- P1 4:17MTLJoel Armia: Interference2 min
- P1 8:55DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:23MTLBen Chiarot: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:51DALAlexander Radulov: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:36DALJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:49MTLNick Suzuki: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 1:14DALAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:29MTLJordan Weal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:56MTLJeff Petry: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Drouin – Domi7:03
xG 0.78–0.45 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Suzuki6:21
xG 0.47–0.27 (63%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Thompson – Weal – Cousins7:43
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Thompson – Byron – Lehkonen2:08
xG 0.03–0.23 (10%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Fleury8:57
xG 0.82–0.27 (75%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Weber – Mete9:38
xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Petry – Reilly3:37
xG 0.02–0.03 (43%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin9:38
xG 0.87–0.31 (74%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa9:12
xG 0.61–0.17 (78%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Gurianov7:49
xG 0.51–0.78 (40%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Perry – Janmark – Dickinson5:51
xG 0.07–0.55 (12%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen12:00
xG 1.32–0.73 (64%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Fedun – Hanley8:32
xG 0.64–0.32 (67%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell15:07
xG 0.59–0.79 (43%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).