Sat, Nov 2, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 26 | 012 | 110 | 11 | 429 |
| MIN | 110 | 26 | 07 | 00 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:26MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Joel Eriksson Ek · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 4:00STLMackenzie MacEachernAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 14:25STLCarl GunnarssonAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 1:01MINKevin FialaAssists: Jonas Brodin, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 4:39MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Eric Staal, Brad Hunt · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 6:05STLSammy BlaisAssists: Tyler Bozak, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–3
- OT 2:27STLRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Robert Thomas, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:52STLDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:58MINRyan Suter: Holding2 min
- P2 3:10STLVince Dunn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:05MINMats Zuccarello: Bench2 min
- P3 8:19MINMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Barbashev
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Bozak – Blais4:25
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – MacEachern – Barbashev8:34
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Schenn – Schwartz – Thomas6:01
xG 0.13–0.07 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Bozak – Thomas3:10
xG 0.07–0.11 (40%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko15:54
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Faulk – Dunn15:09
xG 0.73–0.69 (52%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo14:08
xG 0.18–0.43 (30%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek11:53
xG 0.73–0.11 (86%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Fiala9:05
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Kunin4:25
xG 0.02–0.02 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Zuccarello – Zucker12:38
xG 0.25–0.41 (38%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:34
xG 0.92–0.30 (75%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Seeler – Hunt10:22
xG 0.06–0.14 (29%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba18:15
xG 0.35–0.95 (27%)attempts 12–20goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).