Sat, Nov 2, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Los Angeles Kings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 212 | 08 | 14 | 03 | 327 |
| LAK | 217 | 018 | 110 | 14 | 449 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:50LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 4:29LAKMatt RoyAssists: Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 8:25CHIDominik KubalikPPAssists: Kirby Dach, Alex Nylander · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 17:23CHIDavid KampfUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 12:37LAKMichael AmadioAssists: Dustin Brown, Kurtis MacDermid · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 18:21CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 4:43LAKDrew DoughtyGWGAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:03CHISlater Koekkoek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:08LAKAdrian Kempe: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:42CHICalvin de Haan: Interference2 min
- P2 11:50CHIRyan Carpenter: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:18CHIOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Saad – Nylander11:53
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Kane – Kubalik – Kampf7:59
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
- Carpenter – Strome – DeBrincat5:40
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Carpenter – Kampf2:48
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Maatta – Koekkoek11:00
xG 0.22–0.23 (48%)attempts 4–13goals 0–2
- Seabrook – de Haan13:21
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Keith – Boqvist11:15
xG 0.73–0.77 (49%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Kopitar – Grundstrom12:21
xG 0.83–0.14 (86%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Toffoli – Lizotte5:20
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Amadio6:58
xG 0.15–0.07 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Kempe – Iafallo7:09
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Walker16:51
xG 1.23–0.50 (71%)attempts 25–14goals 1–1
- Martinez – Doughty18:46
xG 0.72–1.01 (42%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).