Sun, Nov 3, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Calgary Flames 2, Washington Capitals 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 28 | 011 | 08 | 227 |
| WSH | 210 | 113 | 19 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:40CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 11:01WSHJakub VranaAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 15:08WSHJakub VranaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 19:58CGYElias LindholmAssists: Oliver Kylington, Andrew Mangiapane · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 15:05WSHJakub VranaGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Michal Kempny · Snap, 0.38 xG2–3
- P3 2:20WSHLars EllerPPAssists: Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P2 9:43CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:43WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:55CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:39WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:32CGYAlan Quine: Interference2 min
- P3 19:03WSHDmitry Orlov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Rieder – Jankowski8:41
xG 0.61–0.11 (85%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Quine – Bennett – Ryan10:42
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Backlund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk10:49
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan10:35
xG 0.32–1.25 (20%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin17:33
xG 0.94–0.46 (67%)attempts 20–17goals 0–1
- Andersson – Kylington12:51
xG 0.74–0.44 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Giordano – Brodie15:47
xG 0.58–1.25 (32%)attempts 19–13goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana10:24
xG 1.33–0.39 (77%)attempts 14–6goals 3–0
- Hagelin – Eller – Hathaway11:18
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Boyd – Leipsic – Stephenson7:48
xG 0.13–0.35 (28%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom12:44
xG 0.51–0.77 (40%)attempts 11–20goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny16:10
xG 1.39–0.32 (81%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
- Jensen – Siegenthaler14:01
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
- Orlov – Gudas14:04
xG 0.41–0.75 (35%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).