Mon, Nov 4, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 421 | 014 | 444 |
| BOS | 210 | 16 | 310 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:24BOSJake DeBruskUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 13:05BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 4:22BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 5:35PITDominik KahunAssists: Jared McCann, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 9:56PITNick BjugstadAssists: Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 15:59PITBryan RustAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P2 19:57PITJohn MarinoUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 8:14BOSTorey KrugAssists: Brad Marchand, David Krejci · Slap, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 18:03BOSBrad MarchandGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–5
- P3 19:46BOSPatrice BergeronENAssists: David Krejci, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:04BOSDavid Krejci: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:04PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:50PITJohn Marino: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:02PITZachary Aston-Reese: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:02BOSBrandon Carlo: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:47PITNick Bjugstad: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese9:01
xG 0.59–0.10 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Simon13:36
xG 1.13–0.73 (61%)attempts 19–12goals 0–3
- Bjugstad – McCann – Kahun9:27
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Malkin – Rust – Galchenyuk9:44
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Pettersson13:21
xG 0.91–0.32 (74%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Letang – Dumoulin14:17
xG 0.71–0.58 (55%)attempts 16–12goals 1–2
- Johnson – Marino13:28
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak14:05
xG 0.87–0.62 (58%)attempts 15–12goals 2–1
- Coyle – Heinen – DeBrusk2:09
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Krejci – Heinen – DeBrusk8:47
xG 0.24–0.64 (27%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Hughes8:41
xG 0.07–0.48 (12%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy13:52
xG 0.82–0.61 (57%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
- Chara – Carlo3:39
xG 0.17–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy2:36
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).