Tue, Nov 5, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Boston Bruins 4, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 16 | 29 | 110 | 425 |
| MTL | 313 | 112 | 16 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13MTLVictor MeteAssists: Joel Armia, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 14:55BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Torey Krug, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 16:45MTLTomas TatarAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 17:16MTLPaul ByronUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 7:17BOSConnor CliftonAssists: Zach Senyshyn · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 18:13BOSAnders BjorkAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Zach Senyshyn · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–3
- P2 18:55MTLVictor MeteAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 3:03BOSSean KuralyAssists: Chris Wagner · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–4
- P3 9:06MTLBen ChiarotGWGAssists: Shea Weber, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:49MTLVictor Mete: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:50BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:58BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:14MTLShea Weber: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Bjork – Senyshyn8:08
xG 0.61–0.06 (91%)attempts 10–3goals 2–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Ritchie4:57
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – DeBrusk2:58
xG 0.02–0.02 (57%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Krejci – Ritchie – DeBrusk3:07
xG 0.12–0.13 (47%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy6:29
xG 0.19–0.09 (69%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy10:26
xG 0.78–0.68 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Clifton4:59
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Byron – Lehkonen2:04
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault12:16
xG 0.68–0.51 (57%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1
- Armia – Drouin – Domi11:24
xG 0.66–0.52 (56%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Byron – Lehkonen – Poehling6:01
xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Chiarot18:05
xG 1.14–0.63 (64%)attempts 23–19goals 2–1
- Petry – Mete17:51
xG 0.74–0.61 (55%)attempts 23–13goals 2–0
- Reilly – Fleury9:14
xG 0.11–0.53 (17%)attempts 2–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).