Tue, Nov 5, 2019·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Ottawa Senators 1, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 18 | 010 | 010 | 128 |
| NYI | 110 | 113 | 29 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:44OTTJean-Gabriel PageauSHAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 8:23NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Casey Cizikas, Devon Toews · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 15:34NYICole BardreauGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
- P3 10:00NYICasey CizikasAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Scott Mayfield · Slap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 10:40NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Noah Dobson, Adam Pelech · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:01OTTArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:54NYIScott Mayfield: Holding2 min
- P2 15:34OTTMark Borowiecki: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 5:21OTTDylan DeMelo: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:10NYIAdam Pelech: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:11NYIRoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:11NYIRoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:11NYIRoss Johnston: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Namestnikov – Tierney2:32
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Tierney – Duclair – Tkachuk5:29
xG 0.25–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Pageau – Duclair – Tkachuk4:07
xG 0.09–0.04 (69%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Pageau – Brown – Paul7:20
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chabot – Zaitsev18:55
xG 0.51–0.48 (52%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Goloubef14:00
xG 0.24–0.61 (28%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Borowiecki – DeMelo11:41
xG 0.47–1.14 (29%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Cizikas – Dal Colle10:27
xG 1.56–0.24 (87%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Johnston – Bardreau – Wahlstrom7:35
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Brassard – Nelson – Beauvillier11:15
xG 0.25–0.29 (47%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Barzal11:40
xG 0.23–0.48 (32%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews13:31
xG 1.41–0.18 (89%)attempts 22–6goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Dobson12:15
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock16:18
xG 0.44–0.70 (38%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).