Tue, Nov 5, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 014 | 19 | 011 | 134 |
| PHI | 110 | 05 | 313 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:30PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 6:17CARLucas WallmarkAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 1:12PHITravis KonecnyGWGAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 12:59PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 17:38PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Philippe Myers · Slap, 0.14 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:16CARJoel Edmundson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:16PHIJoel Farabee: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:08CARJake Gardiner: Holding2 min
- P2 1:17PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:03CARJoel Edmundson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:40PHIIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Teravainen12:58
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Foegele – Aho – Svechnikov9:42
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Dzingel – Wallmark – Necas11:04
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Gibbons – McGinn – Aho3:31
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin14:33
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 15–3goals 0–1
- Edmundson – van Riemsdyk10:31
xG 0.33–0.17 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Pesce13:00
xG 0.77–0.64 (54%)attempts 17–13goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Couturier – Lindblom – Konecny12:18
xG 0.31–0.36 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Voracek – Hayes – Twarynski3:24
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Twarynski – Rubtsov4:37
xG 0.00–0.07 (5%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Voracek – Hayes – Raffl8:08
xG 0.10–0.46 (18%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Braun – Gostisbehere13:16
xG 0.05–0.31 (14%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Sanheim – Myers15:39
xG 0.35–0.65 (35%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Provorov14:59
xG 0.46–0.96 (33%)attempts 9–20goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).