Tue, Nov 5, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 19 | 19 | 07 | 225 |
| CBJ | 09 | 111 | 010 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:15VGKReilly SmithAssists: William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 5:37CBJBoone JennerAssists: Dean Kukan, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 7:36VGKReilly SmithSHGWGAssists: William Karlsson, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:58CBJJosh Anderson: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:44VGKRyan Reaves: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:15CBJSonny Milano: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 6:25VGKTomas Nosek: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:27VGKNicolas Roy: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:07CBJGustav Nyquist: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:06VGKJon Merrill: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Pacioretty – Stone10:52
xG 0.87–0.15 (85%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:21
xG 0.31–0.33 (48%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Roy6:40
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Eakin – Nosek – Glass7:21
xG 0.03–0.14 (20%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTheodore – Hague11:03
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Holden – Merrill15:21
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- McNabb – Schmidt13:51
xG 0.43–1.00 (30%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Bjorkstrand – Dubois8:12
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Nash – Anderson – Milano2:32
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Wennberg – Milano5:51
xG 0.07–0.17 (29%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Anderson4:47
xG 0.18–0.52 (25%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Kukan2:41
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski13:35
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Savard – Werenski3:00
xG 0.11–0.03 (76%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).