Tue, Nov 5, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Los Angeles Kings 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 07 | 19 | 09 | 125 |
| TOR | 07 | 17 | 29 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:40LAKAlex IafalloPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P2 13:29TORAlexander KerfootUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 12:36TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: William Nylander, Andreas Johnsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 13:06TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews, Justin Holl · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:42LAKTyler Toffoli: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:02TORAlexander Kerfoot: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:05LAKAdrian Kempe: Interference2 min
- P2 18:33TORJake Muzzin: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00LAKAlec Martinez: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:49TORNicholas Shore: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:47LAKBen Hutton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kerfoot won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Toffoli – Lizotte4:24
xG 0.31–0.10 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Kempe – Iafallo8:06
xG 0.13–0.15 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Lewis – Clifford – Amadio6:48
xG 0.11–0.25 (31%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Carter – Kopitar – Grundstrom10:08
xG 0.30–0.47 (39%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Doughty18:50
xG 0.50–0.34 (60%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Hutton – Walker14:49
xG 0.37–0.69 (35%)attempts 16–15goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Petan – Marner9:42
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Kapanen – Mikheyev8:43
xG 0.34–0.24 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Shore – Gauthier – Moore6:29
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews11:23
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Ceci14:25
xG 0.73–0.29 (71%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Holl – Dermott10:21
xG 0.37–0.24 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Barrie12:55
xG 0.23–0.41 (35%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).