Wed, Nov 6, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Detroit Red Wings 1, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 113 | 016 | 136 |
| NYR | 011 | 313 | 27 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:25NYRTony DeAngeloPPAssists: Brendan Lemieux, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 6:04NYRChris KreiderGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 8:49NYRRyan StromePPAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 9:41DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 8:44NYRGreg McKeggSHAssists: Brett Howden, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 17:23NYRArtemi PanarinENAssists: Ryan Strome, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:19NYRJacob Trouba: Interference2 min
- P2 2:26DETAdam Erne: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:19DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:08NYRMicheal Haley: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:35DETDylan McIlrath: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Filppula – Athanasiou – Mantha4:25
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Abdelkader – Perlini – Hirose5:49
xG 0.17–0.26 (40%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Athanasiou – Erne6:16
xG 0.08–0.39 (17%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
- Bertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin7:44
xG 0.26–0.59 (31%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBowey – Hicketts14:55
xG 0.83–0.30 (73%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Bowey – Cholowski2:09
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- McIlrath – Cholowski6:30
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Fast – Strome – Panarin8:18
xG 0.41–0.38 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Kreider – Buchnevich – Chytil12:04
xG 0.50–0.51 (50%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Lemieux – Howden – Kakko12:09
xG 0.52–0.67 (44%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Fox10:05
xG 0.69–0.34 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Skjei – DeAngelo11:16
xG 0.33–0.47 (42%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Trouba – Hajek13:51
xG 0.70–0.86 (45%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).