Wed, Nov 6, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
St. Louis Blues 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 17 | 29 | 29 | 525 |
| EDM | 17 | 012 | 115 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Mike Smith · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 6:02STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, David Perron · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 7:10STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 15:18STLRobert ThomasGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 11:02EDMZack KassianAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 19:01STLTyler BozakENAssists: Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.48 xG4–2
- P3 19:27STLIvan BarbashevENAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.62 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:55STLRobert Thomas: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 5:44EDMTomas Jurco: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:04EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:04EDMAlex Chiasson: Kneeing2 min
- P2 19:00STLJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:32STLBrayden Schenn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sundqvist won the faceoff against Cave
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Sundqvist – MacEachern – Barbashev7:34
xG 0.50–0.45 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford11:14
xG 0.59–0.55 (52%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Steen – Bozak – Blais6:45
xG 0.02–0.20 (10%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Thomas11:03
xG 0.39–0.98 (28%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Faulk12:32
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Gunnarsson – Faulk2:23
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Dunn5:06
xG 0.04–0.08 (36%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Draisaitl – McDavid8:01
xG 0.97–0.37 (72%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Jurco – Haas6:39
xG 0.26–0.06 (80%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid4:35
xG 0.62–0.55 (53%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Cave – Russell2:51
xG 0.39–0.33 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlefbom – Benning5:10
xG 0.70–0.23 (75%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Manning – Benning9:24
xG 0.40–0.06 (86%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bear16:41
xG 1.23–1.14 (52%)attempts 20–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).