Thu, Nov 7, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 07 | 014 | 115 | 02 | 138 |
| TOR | 013 | 010 | 112 | 12 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 4:08VGKMax PaciorettyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 8:14TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: John Tavares, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- OT 2:33TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Mitch Marner · Slap, 0.23 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:26VGKNicolas Hague: Interference2 min
- P1 13:48VGKPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:46TORDmytro Timashov: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:09TORWilliam Nylander: Holding2 min
- P2 11:11VGKBrayden McNabb: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:12VGKNick Holden: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:33VGKPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:20TORJustin Holl: Interference2 min
- P3 6:44VGKWilliam Carrier: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:33TORTrevor Moore: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:39TORAlexander Kerfoot: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kerfoot won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Pacioretty – Stone9:31
xG 0.79–0.14 (85%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Roy3:51
xG 0.68–0.07 (91%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Pirri – Eakin – Glass5:52
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:23
xG 0.16–0.72 (18%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt12:22
xG 0.85–0.32 (73%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Theodore – Hague9:42
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Holden – Merrill11:24
xG 0.58–0.93 (38%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Kapanen – Mikheyev6:23
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Shore – Gauthier – Timashov3:56
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Tavares – Marner – Moore5:38
xG 0.44–0.65 (41%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews10:39
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Ceci8:52
xG 0.85–0.29 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Holl – Dermott6:02
xG 0.28–0.17 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Holl – Rielly2:14
xG 0.01–0.05 (14%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).