Thu, Nov 7, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Washington Capitals 5, Florida Panthers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 210 | 113 | 11 | 531 |
| FLA | 211 | 213 | 011 | 01 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:25WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Michal Kempny, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 1:55FLAFrank VatranoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 14:26FLABrett ConnollyAssists: Anton Stralman, Brian Boyle · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 0:27FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Evgenii Dadonov · Slap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 6:13WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 12:14WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–3
- P2 18:59FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.22 xG3–4
- P3 0:44WSHTom WilsonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–4
- OT 0:17WSHTom WilsonGWGAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:22FLAAleksander Barkov: Interference2 min
- P2 5:38FLABrian Boyle: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:03WSHTom Wilson: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:59WSHGarnet Hathaway: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:13FLAKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:42WSHDmitry Orlov: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:37WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:00FLADryden Hunt: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:59WSHMichal Kempny: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom12:38
xG 0.84–0.77 (52%)attempts 21–10goals 2–1
- Boyd – Leipsic – Stephenson6:28
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana9:29
xG 0.13–0.30 (30%)attempts 2–8goals 1–1
- Hagelin – Eller – Hathaway7:26
xG 0.14–0.55 (20%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Siegenthaler6:11
xG 0.49–0.05 (91%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov2:31
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Carlson – Kempny14:01
xG 0.74–0.63 (54%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Toninato – Hunt9:20
xG 0.66–0.43 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Boyle – Hoffman – Connolly8:36
xG 0.48–0.37 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov10:41
xG 0.44–0.50 (47%)attempts 12–9goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad12:52
xG 0.84–0.67 (56%)attempts 14–11goals 1–3
- Yandle – Brown7:36
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Stralman – Matheson10:41
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).