Thu, Nov 7, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Montréal Canadiens 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 012 | 17 | 15 | 00 | 224 |
| PHI | 118 | 116 | 08 | 11 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:51PHIPhilippe MyersUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 0:49PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 13:44MTLBen ChiarotAssists: Nick Cousins, Phillip Danault · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 4:05MTLShea WeberAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 0:55PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Travis Konecny, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:43MTLTomas Tatar: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:40MTLTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:28MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:06MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:07MTLNick Cousins: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:33MTLTomas Tatar: Delaying game bench2 min
- P3 13:17MTLShea Weber: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Cousins – Danault5:59
xG 0.31–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Poehling6:03
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Thompson – Cousins – Suzuki4:21
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Thompson – Byron – Lehkonen2:48
xG 0.02–0.09 (18%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot15:46
xG 0.78–0.48 (62%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Mete2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Reilly – Fleury9:17
xG 0.43–0.44 (49%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – van Riemsdyk – Farabee10:54
xG 0.21–0.06 (79%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Couturier – Lindblom – Konecny11:28
xG 0.49–0.45 (53%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Voracek – Hayes – Twarynski10:49
xG 0.73–0.70 (51%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Raffl – Vorobyev7:00
xG 0.09–0.45 (17%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Myers14:54
xG 0.50–0.23 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Braun – Gostisbehere12:41
xG 0.47–0.62 (43%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Provorov15:39
xG 0.48–0.66 (42%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).