Thu, Nov 7, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Rangers 4, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 16 | 18 | 25 | 419 |
| CAR | 022 | 112 | 113 | 247 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:32NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Ryan Strome, Jesper Fast · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 14:32CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 18:04NYRBrendan LemieuxPPAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Pavel Buchnevich · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 1:15NYRFilip ChytilGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 15:58CARSebastian AhoAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 18:35NYRAdam FoxENAssists: Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:32NYRLias Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:10NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:45CARJake Gardiner: Interference2 min
- P2 17:46CARBrett Pesce: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Buchnevich – Chytil11:11
xG 0.79–0.42 (65%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Lemieux – Howden – Kakko8:31
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kreider – Strome – Panarin2:03
xG 0.03–0.62 (4%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
- Fast – Strome – Panarin9:24
xG 0.16–0.94 (15%)attempts 1–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Fox – Lindgren12:44
xG 0.49–0.63 (44%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- Staal – DeAngelo9:34
xG 0.47–1.00 (32%)attempts 5–18goals 1–0
- Trouba – Hajek16:29
xG 0.67–1.59 (30%)attempts 9–28goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Teravainen12:44
xG 1.43–0.25 (85%)attempts 28–4goals 1–1
- Foegele – Aho – Svechnikov8:28
xG 0.80–0.49 (62%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Gibbons – McGinn – Luostarinen7:59
xG 0.42–0.14 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Dzingel – Wallmark – Necas5:06
xG 0.49–0.20 (70%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin16:08
xG 1.48–0.32 (82%)attempts 28–6goals 1–1
- Edmundson – van Riemsdyk13:17
xG 1.00–0.80 (56%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Pesce14:58
xG 0.85–0.68 (56%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).