Thu, Nov 7, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Vancouver Canucks 2, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 017 | 112 | 19 | 238 |
| CHI | 217 | 010 | 310 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:41CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dylan Strome, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 18:43CHIAndrew ShawPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 1:02VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 14:54CHIPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Duncan Keith, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 17:53CHIDavid KampfENAssists: Olli Maatta · Tip-in, 0.54 xG1–4
- P3 18:59VANJake VirtanenAssists: Alexander Edler, Adam Gaudette · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 19:54CHIBrandon SaadENAssists: Ryan Carpenter, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.58 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:41VANJake Virtanen: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:32VANJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:04CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:10CHIAdam Boqvist: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:14VANJ.T. Miller: Interference2 min
- P2 13:04VANElias Pettersson: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:58CHIDylan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:29VANAlexander Edler: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:09VANJ.T. Miller: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:04CHIDrake Caggiula: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSutter – Leivo – Virtanen6:53
xG 0.82–0.40 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Gaudette6:33
xG 0.40–0.09 (81%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Beagle – Schaller6:39
xG 0.48–0.21 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson8:51
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Stecher8:17
xG 1.09–0.34 (76%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Myers – Stecher2:12
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Edler – Stecher2:08
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Saad – Nylander9:00
xG 0.84–0.27 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat9:07
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Shaw – Caggiula – Kampf2:20
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Smith – Carpenter – Kampf7:09
xG 0.38–0.56 (40%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – de Haan12:13
xG 0.91–0.60 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Keith – Gustafsson12:15
xG 0.83–0.61 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- de Haan – Gustafsson2:52
xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).