Thu, Nov 7, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New Jersey Devils 2, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 19 | 14 | 010 | 223 |
| CGY | 09 | 417 | 112 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:44NJDJack HughesAssists: Taylor Hall, Will Butcher · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 3:02CGYDerek RyanAssists: Michael Stone, TJ Brodie · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 5:21NJDNikita GusevAssists: Jack Hughes, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 9:57CGYSean MonahanAssists: Noah Hanifin, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
- P2 14:53CGYMikael BacklundPPGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 19:46CGYNoah HanifinPPAssists: Sam Bennett, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 10:01CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:46NJDNikita Gusev: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:38CGYMark Jankowski: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:44NJDWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:26NJDNikita Gusev: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:45CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:10NJDTaylor Hall: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:12NJDBlake Coleman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:08NJDJack Hughes: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:49CGYMikael Backlund: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Simmonds – Wood – Rooney5:06
xG 0.20–0.19 (52%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Wood – Zacha2:00
xG 0.02–0.04 (30%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Gusev – Zacha – Hughes5:33
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
- Palmieri – Hall – Hischier9:16
xG 0.17–0.41 (30%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Vatanen12:57
xG 0.26–0.21 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Tennyson – Butcher10:33
xG 0.43–0.91 (32%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- Subban – Severson14:14
xG 0.27–1.00 (21%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk11:16
xG 0.89–0.33 (73%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Rieder – Quine – Ryan2:10
xG 0.38–0.03 (94%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Quine – Bennett – Ryan8:10
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Lucic – Rieder – Jankowski5:28
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamonic14:40
xG 1.02–0.49 (68%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Hanifin – Andersson14:27
xG 0.91–0.38 (70%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Stone – Brodie12:53
xG 0.42–0.38 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).