Thu, Nov 7, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 5, San Jose Sharks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 010 | 210 | 36 | 526 |
| SJS | 412 | 27 | 012 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:52SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Evander Kane, Marcus Sorensen · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 5:55SJSTimo MeierAssists: Tomas Hertl, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 16:40SJSMarcus SorensenAssists: Patrick Marleau, Logan Couture · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–3
- P1 18:32SJSRadim SimekAssists: Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier · Slap, 0.06 xG0–4
- P2 15:51MINLuke KuninAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 17:04SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–5
- P2 17:59MINEric StaalAssists: Ryan Hartman · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–5
- P2 19:15SJSEvander KanePPGWGAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–6
- P3 8:07MINBrad HuntAssists: Luke Kunin · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–6
- P3 9:21MINRyan DonatoAssists: Eric Staal, Kevin Fiala · Slap, 0.18 xG4–6
- P3 15:25MINJason ZuckerAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Eric Staal · Slap, 0.11 xG5–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 11:42SJSDylan Gambrell: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:54MINJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:54SJSBrent Burns: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:09SJSTimo Meier: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:09MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:25SJSBrenden Dillon: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:06SJSTimo Meier: Holding2 min
- P2 14:06SJSDylan Gambrell: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:06MINMathew Dumba: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 16:37MINEric Staal: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:05MINJordan Greenway: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 10:09SJSEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:09MINRyan Hartman: Slashing5 min
- P3 10:09MINRyan Hartman: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 10:43MINRyan Donato: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGreenway – Eriksson Ek – Kunin6:09
xG 0.41–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Hartman – Donato – Kunin3:00
xG 0.27–0.16 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek3:45
xG 0.26–0.16 (61%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Zuccarello – Fiala3:57
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunt – Dumba2:32
xG 0.37–0.06 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Brodin – Soucy2:44
xG 0.05–0.03 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon13:54
xG 0.52–0.55 (49%)attempts 18–8goals 2–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Kane – Labanc8:42
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Hertl – Meier7:05
xG 0.70–0.55 (56%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Gregor – Gambrell – Bergmann6:43
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Sorensen10:24
xG 0.37–0.41 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Simek12:59
xG 0.79–0.27 (74%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson11:24
xG 0.44–0.53 (46%)attempts 9–5goals 3–0
- Dillon – Ferraro6:59
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).