Fri, Nov 8, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 112 | 112 | 04 | 228 |
| DET | 212 | 110 | 110 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Peter Cehlarik · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 2:41DETDylan LarkinAssists: Madison Bowey, Jonathan Bernier · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 11:49DETRobby FabbriPPAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Anthony Mantha · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 1:30DETRobby FabbriPPGWGAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Dennis Cholowski · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 17:52BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Torey Krug, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 18:32DETAnthony ManthaENAssists: Jonathan Bernier · Wrist, 0.62 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:40BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:12BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:24DETMadison Bowey: Holding2 min
- P2 0:28BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:30BOSTorey Krug: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:50DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:16DETFilip Hronek: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:16BOSBrad Marchand: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:35BOSDavid Krejci: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:56DETValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:34DETMadison Bowey: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Cehlarik – Heinen7:03
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Coyle – Bjork – Senyshyn6:43
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:14
xG 0.22–0.86 (20%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy16:04
xG 0.61–0.08 (88%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Krug – Clifton2:09
xG 0.07–0.21 (26%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Chara – Clifton12:26
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin11:54
xG 0.73–0.14 (84%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Filppula – Athanasiou – Fabbri7:09
xG 0.07–0.05 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Abdelkader – Helm – Ehn6:20
xG 0.06–0.09 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Erne – Perlini4:16
xG 0.06–0.13 (33%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Hronek14:50
xG 0.72–0.17 (81%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- McIlrath – Cholowski8:49
xG 0.10–0.15 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Green – Bowey15:51
xG 0.35–0.50 (41%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).