Sat, Nov 9, 2019·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Florida Panthers 1, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 014 | 08 | 116 | 138 |
| NYI | 17 | 019 | 110 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:40NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Brock Nelson, Derick Brassard · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 6:12FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Keith Yandle · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 6:50NYIScott MayfieldGWGAssists: Devon Toews, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:37FLAEvgenii Dadonov: Interference2 min
- P1 18:11NYIDevon Toews: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:06NYIJordan Eberle: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:10FLAAaron Ekblad: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:01FLAMark Pysyk: Holding2 min
- P3 4:44NYIJohnny Boychuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:27NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov11:55
xG 1.66–0.75 (69%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Toninato – Hunt4:33
xG 0.16–0.30 (35%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Connolly – Trocheck10:03
xG 0.29–0.52 (36%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Boyle – Vatrano – Malgin6:34
xG 0.28–0.68 (29%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad15:21
xG 1.38–0.60 (70%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Stralman – Matheson13:51
xG 1.03–1.25 (45%)attempts 21–22goals 0–1
- Yandle – Pysyk9:54
xG 0.44–0.74 (37%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Barzal10:02
xG 1.33–1.03 (56%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Bailey – Dal Colle4:20
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Johnston – Dal Colle – Bardreau3:34
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Brassard – Nelson – Beauvillier11:25
xG 0.39–0.67 (37%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy11:50
xG 0.76–0.40 (66%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech2:20
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock11:10
xG 0.77–1.03 (43%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).