Sat, Nov 9, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 28 | 010 | 013 | 01 | 2 | 332 |
| TOR | 010 | 111 | 111 | 08 | 1 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:08PHIPhilippe MyersAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 18:28PHIOskar LindblomPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Shayne Gostisbehere · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 10:11TORTravis DermottAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 3:58TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TOR John Tavares stopped
- 2. PHI Travis Konecny stopped
- 3. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 5. TOR William Nylander scored
- 6. PHI Sean Couturier scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:21TORNicholas Shore: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:03TORIlya Mikheyev: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:27PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:26TORDmytro Timashov: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:10PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- OT 4:52PHITravis Konecny: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Andreoff – Raffl5:55
xG 0.57–0.01 (99%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Voracek – Hayes – Twarynski10:11
xG 0.16–0.14 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Couturier – Lindblom – Konecny10:49
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Farabee9:56
xG 0.28–0.57 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Gostisbehere10:36
xG 0.59–0.05 (92%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Myers16:21
xG 0.48–0.63 (43%)attempts 14–23goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Provorov15:33
xG 0.47–0.75 (38%)attempts 14–18goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Nylander – Matthews12:33
xG 0.79–0.38 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 2–1
- Tavares – Kapanen – Moore7:56
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Kapanen – Mikheyev5:00
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Tavares – Marner – Moore3:23
xG 0.02–0.11 (16%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Ceci16:21
xG 0.64–0.31 (68%)attempts 22–13goals 0–0
- Holl – Dermott9:42
xG 0.44–0.50 (47%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Muzzin – Barrie17:12
xG 0.43–0.86 (33%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).