Sat, Nov 9, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Los Angeles Kings 2, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 011 | 110 | 112 | 233 |
| MTL | 317 | 08 | 012 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:13MTLShea WeberPPAssists: Max Domi, Jonathan Drouin · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 10:28MTLNate ThompsonAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 16:48MTLShea WeberPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Nick Cousins · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 2:41LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Alex Iafallo, Blake Lizotte · Snap, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 13:04LAKBlake LizotteAssists: Austin Wagner, Carl Grundstrom · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:22LAKJeff Carter: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:38MTLNick Suzuki: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:42LAKAustin Wagner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:43MTLNick Cousins: Interference2 min
- P2 1:12MTLJeff Petry: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:26LAKCarl Grundstrom: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:13LAKKyle Clifford: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 8:22LAKBen Hutton: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWagner – Grundstrom – Lizotte9:45
xG 0.43–0.09 (83%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Carter – Kopitar – Toffoli11:41
xG 0.13–0.38 (26%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Clifford – Amadio9:17
xG 0.04–0.41 (9%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Brown – Kempe – Iafallo5:45
xG 0.01–0.49 (3%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ryan – Roy12:05
xG 0.00–0.17 (2%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Hutton – Walker9:08
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Martinez – Doughty17:43
xG 0.20–0.78 (20%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Danault – Drouin11:09
xG 0.40–0.10 (80%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Byron – Armia – Domi7:35
xG 0.32–0.03 (92%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Tatar – Lehkonen – Suzuki6:35
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Thompson – Cousins – Poehling6:14
xG 0.03–0.15 (19%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Chiarot13:49
xG 0.83–0.11 (88%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Petry – Mete13:17
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Kulak – Fleury11:28
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).