Sat, Nov 9, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 218 | 016 | 07 | 241 |
| COL | 113 | 213 | 110 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:55CBJEmil BemstromPPAssists: Seth Jones, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 15:06COLSamuel GirardPPAssists: Vladislav Kamenev, Tyson Jost · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 19:06CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Cam Atkinson, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 10:52COLCale MakarAssists: Ryan Graves, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 16:11COLCale MakarGWGAssists: Tyson Jost, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 17:54COLNazem KadriUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:03COLRyan Graves: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:39CBJDean Kukan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:16COLMatt Calvert: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:15CBJNick Foligno: Charging5 min
- P2 17:15CBJNick Foligno: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 4:14COLMark Barberio: Interference2 min
- P3 7:02COLTyson Jost: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestWennberg – Sherwood – Bemstrom4:43
xG 0.49–0.07 (87%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Atkinson – Texier7:10
xG 0.25–0.07 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Bjorkstrand – Dubois11:35
xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
- Atkinson – Wennberg – Texier2:36
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Gavrikov12:53
xG 1.03–0.19 (84%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
- Harrington – Kukan11:34
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski15:19
xG 0.35–0.69 (34%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Nichushkin – Bellemare7:13
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Tynan – Burakovsky – Kamenev3:18
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Calvert – Donskoi – MacKinnon13:44
xG 0.49–0.57 (46%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Kadri – Compher – Jost6:10
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Makar7:32
xG 0.71–0.57 (56%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Girard – Makar4:03
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard12:15
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).