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Ice Lab

Sun, Nov 10, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York

Florida Panthers 6, New York Rangers 5 (SO)

Away

Florida Panthers

6

Final

Shootout

Home

New York Rangers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 54% of the time.

NYR winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
FLA2182817022635
NYR19410011041534

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:06NYRRyan LindgrenAssists: Ryan Strome, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P1 18:13FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P1 18:43FLADominic ToninatoAssists: Dryden Hunt, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
  4. P2 1:28NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
  5. P2 4:42FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.14 xG3–2
  6. P2 5:31NYRBrady SkjeiUnassisted · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–3
  7. P2 7:31NYRKaapo KakkoPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
  8. P2 8:30FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Evgenii Dadonov · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–4
  9. P2 18:35NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–5
  10. P3 7:01FLABrian BoyleAssists: Keith Yandle, Mike Hoffman · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–5

Shootout

  1. 1. NYR Artemi Panarin stopped
  2. 2. FLA Frank Vatrano scored
  3. 3. NYR Tony DeAngelo stopped
  4. 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
  5. 5. NYR Kaapo Kakko scored
  6. 6. FLA Vincent Trocheck scored
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 8:09NYRRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 3:46NYRRyan Strome: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 5:53FLADominic Toninato: Fighting5 min · PPG
  4. P2 5:53NYRGreg McKegg: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 5:53FLADominic Toninato: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 12:06FLAMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 16:53FLABrett Connolly: Hooking2 min · PPG
  8. P2 0:00FLABrian Boyle: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  9. P3 13:02NYRBrendan Smith: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
45% to win55% to win
← FLA attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Chytil
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLANYR
35Shots on goal34
3.2Expected goals3.6
63Shot attempts54
41Faceoffs won13
3Power plays4
13Penalty minutes11
28Hits25
9Blocked shots15
22Giveaways15
13Takeaways11

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestBoyle – Hoffman – Connolly9:55

    xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0

  2. Sceviour – Toninato – Hunt6:58

    xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0

  3. Trocheck – Vatrano – Malgin8:37

    xG 0.22–0.55 (29%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2

  4. Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov12:54

    xG 0.32–1.06 (23%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestYandle – Stralman6:28

    xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0

  2. Yandle – Brown8:16

    xG 0.43–0.39 (52%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0

  3. Weegar – Ekblad7:54

    xG 0.47–0.67 (41%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0

New York Rangers

Forward lines

  1. bestFast – Strome – Panarin8:50

    xG 0.64–0.19 (77%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1

  2. Strome – Buchnevich – Panarin2:12

    xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0

  3. Buchnevich – Lemieux – Howden2:12

    xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0

  4. Kreider – Buchnevich – Chytil8:18

    xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestDeAngelo – Hajek4:45

    xG 0.62–0.18 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0

  2. Skjei – Trouba6:18

    xG 0.45–0.13 (77%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0

  3. Trouba – Hajek9:25

    xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 3.6 xGFLA 3.2 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 98/100 · #27 of 1082 this seasonSwing 2.91 · 10 goals in reachComeback index 21% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 54% of the time.

NYR winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).