Sun, Nov 10, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 115 | 016 | 326 | 457 |
| CHI | 412 | 015 | 17 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:18CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 12:00CHIKirby DachAssists: Andrew Shaw, Calvin de Haan · Slap, 0.36 xG0–2
- P1 12:10CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Strome · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–3
- P1 16:29TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P1 17:28CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.28 xG1–4
- P3 2:27TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 12:41TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–4
- P3 16:26CHIBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Drake Caggiula · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 19:18TORAndreas JohnssonPPAssists: John Tavares, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:32CHIJonathan Toews: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:32CHIJonathan Toews: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:32TORJake Muzzin: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:16TORJustin Holl: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:26CHIDylan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:17TORJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:01TORMorgan Rielly: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:08TORCody Ceci: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:05CHIDylan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:55CHIAlex Nylander: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:04TORAuston Matthews: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:37CHIErik Gustafsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:23CHIZack Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Nylander – Matthews12:17
xG 0.74–0.56 (57%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Spezza – Kerfoot – Mikheyev2:43
xG 0.11–0.10 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 0–2
- Spezza – Kapanen – Mikheyev2:29
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Shore – Gauthier – Timashov2:44
xG 0.01–0.11 (12%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Ceci2:07
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Holl – Dermott6:29
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Rielly – Dermott3:00
xG 0.02–0.14 (11%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Caggiula – Dach6:57
xG 0.72–0.20 (79%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat10:55
xG 0.72–0.20 (78%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Smith – Kubalik – Kampf5:54
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Toews – Saad – Nylander10:06
xG 0.21–0.49 (30%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – de Haan9:35
xG 0.83–0.35 (70%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Maatta – Boqvist10:02
xG 0.58–0.12 (83%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Seabrook – Gustafsson3:54
xG 0.46–0.11 (80%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).