Sun, Nov 10, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Edmonton Oilers 6, Anaheim Ducks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 210 | 212 | 29 | 631 |
| ANA | 19 | 013 | 111 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:28EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 3:24ANARickard RakellAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Adam Henrique · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 10:40EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 7:45EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Oscar Klefbom · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 10:23EDMZack KassianAssists: Patrick Russell, Ethan Bear · Backhand, 0.22 xG4–1
- P3 3:11ANAMax JonesAssists: Sam Steel · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 7:14EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Zack Kassian, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.34 xG5–2
- P3 13:25EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.15 xG6–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:04EDMConnor McDavid: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:30ANARickard Rakell: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:57EDMZack Kassian: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:01EDMConnor McDavid: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:05ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:09EDMKris Russell: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:50EDMAlex Chiasson: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:59ANAKorbinian Holzer: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:20ANARyan Getzlaf: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steel won the faceoff against Sheahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins11:12
xG 1.05–0.11 (91%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid13:12
xG 1.11–0.88 (56%)attempts 12–20goals 3–1
- Sheahan – Archibald – Khaira8:34
xG 0.38–0.16 (71%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Granlund – Russell – Haas9:47
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear13:33
xG 0.92–0.58 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 2–1
- Klefbom – Persson16:19
xG 0.80–0.56 (59%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Russell – Benning12:03
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Steel – Comtois5:42
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Grant – Rowney – Comtois2:19
xG 0.02–0.08 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Rakell8:24
xG 0.69–0.85 (45%)attempts 12–9goals 1–3
- Grant – Rowney – Jones4:47
xG 0.02–0.21 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Fowler12:05
xG 0.79–0.51 (61%)attempts 17–8goals 2–1
- Gudbranson – Mahura15:34
xG 0.54–0.81 (40%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Holzer – Larsson14:09
xG 0.86–1.18 (42%)attempts 10–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).