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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 12, 2019·TD Garden, Boston

Florida Panthers 5, Boston Bruins 4 (SO)

Away

Florida Panthers

5

Final

Shootout

Home

Boston Bruins

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.

BOS winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
FLA0507412052529
BOS0741609061438

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 11:55BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P2 14:02BOSJoakim NordstromAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P2 17:16BOSAnders BjorkPPAssists: David Krejci, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
  4. P2 19:31BOSZdeno CharaAssists: David Krejci, Danton Heinen · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
  5. P3 0:50FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Keith Yandle, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
  6. P3 5:26FLAFrank VatranoPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.22 xG2–4
  7. P3 9:43FLAMike HoffmanPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.02 xG3–4
  8. P3 18:21FLAKeith YandleAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. FLA Frank Vatrano stopped
  2. 2. BOS Chris Wagner stopped
  3. 3. FLA Vincent Trocheck scored
  4. 4. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
  5. 5. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
  6. 6. BOS Charlie Coyle scored
  7. 7. FLA Mike Hoffman scored
  8. 8. BOS Charlie McAvoy stopped
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 19:47BOSCharlie McAvoy: High sticking2 min
  2. P2 4:21BOSPatrice Bergeron: Holding2 min
  3. P2 15:33FLADryden Hunt: Holding2 min · PPG
  4. P3 1:08BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
  5. P3 1:08BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 1:08FLAVincent Trocheck: Elbowing2 min
  7. P3 1:08FLAVincent Trocheck: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 3:49BOSChris Wagner: Slashing2 min · PPG
  9. P3 8:32BOSSean Kuraly: Hooking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 13:32FLANoel Acciari: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
45% to win55% to win
← FLA attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Acciari won the faceoff against Bergeron
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLABOS
29Shots on goal38
2.9Expected goals3.3
44Shot attempts67
27Faceoffs won24
4Power plays2
8Penalty minutes12
27Hits20
14Blocked shots6
10Giveaways11
9Takeaways12

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. Sceviour – Hunt – Acciari7:27

    xG 0.35–0.36 (49%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0

  2. Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov11:50

    xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1

  3. Trocheck – Vatrano – Malgin8:49

    xG 0.06–0.19 (25%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1

  4. Boyle – Hoffman – Connolly6:56

    xG 0.03–0.44 (7%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. Stralman – Matheson19:43

    xG 0.49–0.58 (46%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0

  2. Yandle – Ekblad16:24

    xG 0.14–0.38 (26%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1

  3. Pysyk – Brown9:13

    xG 0.07–0.37 (15%)attempts 3–9goals 0–2

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:51

    xG 0.22–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0

  2. Bjork – Senyshyn – Lindholm4:22

    xG 0.09–0.01 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0

  3. Pastrnak – Bjork – Lindholm2:11

    xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

  4. Krejci – Coyle – Heinen10:37

    xG 0.59–0.52 (53%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGrzelcyk – Carlo11:18

    xG 0.44–0.03 (93%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0

  2. Chara – McAvoy16:18

    xG 0.47–0.13 (79%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1

  3. Clifton – Vaakanainen11:44

    xG 0.60–0.44 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 3.3 xGFLA 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 92/100 · #87 of 1082 this seasonSwing 1.96 · 7 goals in reach · 4-goal lead cutComeback index 1% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +44 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.

BOS winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).