Tue, Nov 12, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 115 | 011 | 16 | 03 | 0 | 235 |
| MTL | 011 | 014 | 27 | 00 | 1 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:46CBJEric RobinsonAssists: Emil Bemstrom, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P3 3:27MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Victor Mete, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 18:07CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Riley Nash, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 19:19MTLTomas TatarAssists: Nick Suzuki, Phillip Danault · Slap, 0.15 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MTL Paul Byron stopped
- 2. CBJ Cam Atkinson stopped
- 3. MTL Jonathan Drouin scored
- 4. CBJ Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 5. MTL Nick Cousins stopped
- 6. CBJ Oliver Bjorkstrand stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:54MTLShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:33MTLShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:09CBJZach Werenski: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:15CBJRiley Nash: Holding2 min
- OT 1:32MTLVictor Mete: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Bemstrom – Robinson7:03
xG 0.31–0.06 (85%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Bjorkstrand – Dubois13:48
xG 0.25–0.09 (73%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Jenner – Anderson – Milano8:04
xG 0.46–0.31 (59%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Wennberg – Texier12:23
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski16:04
xG 0.79–0.68 (53%)attempts 17–12goals 2–1
- Kukan – Gavrikov11:42
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Savard – Murray16:53
xG 0.26–0.60 (31%)attempts 9–22goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Lehkonen – Suzuki8:50
xG 0.28–0.12 (71%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Thompson – Cousins – Poehling6:21
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Drouin13:54
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Byron – Armia – Domi7:54
xG 0.27–0.49 (35%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot19:36
xG 0.68–0.46 (60%)attempts 24–13goals 0–0
- Weber – Mete15:22
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Kulak – Fleury11:34
xG 0.30–0.64 (32%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).