Tue, Nov 12, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 4, Winnipeg Jets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 08 | 39 | 425 |
| WPG | 09 | 012 | 019 | 040 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:01COLCale MakarGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 0:18COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Matt Calvert, Joonas Donskoi · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 7:13COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Matt Calvert · Snap, 0.21 xG3–0
- P3 13:13COLJoonas DonskoiPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:31WPGMark Scheifele: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 8:18WPGAndrew Copp: Holding2 min
- P1 11:49COLIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:40WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:43COLMark Barberio: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Donskoi – MacKinnon12:38
xG 0.88–0.54 (62%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Tynan – Megna – Kamenev4:39
xG 0.10–0.03 (74%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Nieto – Burakovsky – Jost10:16
xG 0.20–0.32 (38%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Kadri – Compher – Nichushkin8:34
xG 0.05–0.75 (6%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Barberio13:44
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Graves – Makar13:08
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard16:32
xG 0.86–1.15 (43%)attempts 10–21goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Laine14:20
xG 0.72–0.29 (71%)attempts 21–4goals 0–1
- Perreault – Lowry – Copp11:56
xG 0.72–0.35 (67%)attempts 14–7goals 0–2
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic10:11
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Shaw – Gustafsson – Luoto5:55
xG 0.03–0.09 (22%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Pionk17:51
xG 0.73–0.08 (90%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Poolman – Morrissey16:19
xG 0.94–0.63 (60%)attempts 20–8goals 0–2
- Sbisa – Beaulieu13:00
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).