Tue, Nov 12, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Nashville Predators 3, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 119 | 210 | 337 |
| VAN | 08 | 17 | 411 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:25VANTanner PearsonPPAssists: Adam Gaudette, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 13:35NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Matt Duchene, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 6:09VANElias PetterssonPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 8:35NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mattias Ekholm · Deflected, 0.26 xG2–2
- P3 10:59VANAdam GaudettePPAssists: Sven Baertschi, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 11:41VANElias PetterssonGWGAssists: Brock Boeser, Josh Leivo · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 14:26NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:53VANTanner PearsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.43 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:03VANJordie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:57NSHDante Fabbro: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 4:48NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:33NSHKyle Turris: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:02VANBrock Boeser: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Granlund – Forsberg11:41
xG 0.89–0.56 (61%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Duchene – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson10:46
xG 0.65–0.54 (55%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi10:09
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Turris – Watson – Sissons8:02
xG 0.05–0.19 (20%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Fabbro16:06
xG 1.09–0.68 (61%)attempts 23–11goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis17:12
xG 0.89–0.57 (61%)attempts 17–22goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Weber8:21
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBaertschi – Miller – Gaudette2:14
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Baertschi – Miller – Pettersson2:16
xG 0.11–0.03 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Schaller – Gaudette4:36
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Baertschi – Miller – Horvat6:38
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Stecher13:06
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hughes13:51
xG 0.34–0.39 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Edler – Myers16:42
xG 0.61–1.39 (30%)attempts 15–25goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).